Background and outlook

Global conditions are more favourable, supporting firmer economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Lower global inflation and falling interest rates will support demand for African exports. However, the risks to this scenario are tilted to the upside. The US government's push for a universal tariff policy could disrupt the global trade momentum and hurt African growth prospects. Additionally, the firmer US dollar will contain foreign liquidity in sub-Saharan African countries faced with high foreign payments. Overall, we expect firmer growth and lower inflation in the region between 2025 and 2026.