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- Nedbank’s listing shows a sharp decline in fixed investment plans in the first half of 2025. The value of new projects announced during the first half of the year decreased to an annualised R316.2 billion, nearly half of the R592.2 recorded in 2024.
- The private sector is responsible for 100% of the announced plans. The rise in private sector activity reflects (1) the structural shift to renewable energy and the central role of energy security in investment decisions and (2) improved macroeconomic conditions, particularly easing financial constraints and its positive impact on demand dynamics.
- No new projects were announced by the government and public corporations following the surge in investment plans in 2024. Last year the public sector accounted for 83% of the total project listing. Many of those projects are still in the early stages of implementation. As these projects break ground, its impact should begin to filter into actual gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) numbers, as was seen in Q1 when outlays by public corporations and the government increased by 13.8% and 0.3%, respectively.
- Nedbank expects gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to contract by 1.5% in 2025, less than the 3.9% decline in 2024. Despite pockets of improvement, which will support a modest uptick in GFCF duringthe remainder of the year, underlying conditions remain unsupportive of a broad-based upturn in fixed investment activity.